Housing supply across the nation is under significant pressure as a result of escalating construction costs, capacity constraints, and extended construction timelines further exacerbated by unprecedented levels of net overseas migration. But there is a silver lining: dwelling stocks in the outer metropolitan growth areas have remained relatively robust. We explore the population growth hotspots around Australia over the last 12 months.
Dwelling Supply
New dwelling approvals for the month of September 2023 have fallen to the lowest level since 2013, according to data recently released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This trend is consistent for both houses and other dwellings (i.e., units, apartments, etc.).
Approvals have been impacted by significant cost increases since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with builders facing difficulties in acquiring staff and materials, as well as clearing a significant backlog of work.
The tight rental market is further exacerbating the housing supply issue with vacancy levels remaining very low, at ~1% throughout much of 2023.
Dwelling Demand
On the demand side, rapid population growth in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, driven by unprecedented levels of net overseas migration – is further increasing the pressure on the Australian housing market.
This trend is set to continue in the short term, with net overseas migration forecast at 315,000 in 2023–24. This reflects the catch-up from the pandemic as temporary migrants return to Australia.
Where are the Population Growth Hotspots in Australia?
While the construction industry continues to grapple with cost and capacity challenges, there’s a silver lining. Population growth in the outer metropolitan growth areas has remained relatively robust. We explore the population growth hotspots across Australia over the last 12 months.
Melbourne’s Outer West and Northern Frontiers
Other areas of rapid growth include Melbourne CBD – North (+1,624 dwellings) and Mickleham – Yuroke (+1,553 dwellings).
Sydney’s North-West and South-West Growth Centres
The north-west and south-west regions of Sydney have remained the focus as the epi-centres of residential growth in Sydney.
Notably, Schofields – East grew by 1,405 dwellings over the last year. This significant expansion was closely followed by Box Hill-Nelson (+1,234 dwellings), Marsden Park – Shanes Park (+1,159 dwellings), and Leppington – Catherine Field (+860 dwellings).
It comes as no surprise that these regions have significant appeal, given the substantial ongoing developments. The establishment of the Schofields Town Centre and the Marsden Park precinct are set to continue the transformation of the region.
Longer-term plans include connecting Western Sydney Airport, Schofields, and Leppington rail lines for improved accessibility.
Brisbane’s Southward Expansion
Perth’s Outer Growth Areas
Understanding population growth provides invaluable insights into strategic decision-making in the property sector. Please contact us if you would like to understand more about population growth in your region.
